Previously, only car manufacturers had a positive outlook for electric vehicles (EVs). However, the recent boom has changed this, worrying major oil companies. One of the biggest reasons for the switch is that electrical energy is reusable. Newer technologies have allowed automobile manufacturers to invest in clean energy resources for electric cars. The multi-decade projections are being trimmed for both EV and oil sales. The industry consensus indicates boom in oil demand by late 2020s, after which it will flatten out as EVs will outsell traditional vehicles.

Where are the EVs headed?

Joel Couse, Chief Energy Economist for TOTAL, shared his opinion at Bloomberg New Energy Finance’s (BNEF) conference in April this year. According to Couse, EVs will make up 15-30% of new vehicles by 2030. This forecast exceeds any of the existing forecasts by oil manufacturers; as well as the stats from BNEF itself. Chinese manufacturers will be the major players, followed by USA, Europe and Japan. By 2040, BNEF predicts EVs will constitute 35-47% of new cars. The expectations are growing, especially with the new highs achieved every year. For instance, in 2015, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) forecasted EVs will constitute as many as 46M cars on the road by 2040. Last year, the prediction indicated that the numbers will reach 266M by 2040. Here are other important forecasts:
  • International Energy Agency raised its forecast for EV fleet size from 23M to 58M by 2030
  • BP indicates as many as 100M EVs will be on the road by 2035, increasing the value up to 40% from their previous year’s outlook
  • Exxon Mobil increased its estimates from 65M to 100M by 2040
  • Norwegian state oil company, Statoil ASA, indicates EVS will account for 30% of new car sales by 2030

Automakers planning ahead for the boom in sales!

Needless to say, automotive manufacturers around the world are more optimistic than oil producers. They plan to sell a total of 6M EVs by 2025, hopefully rising to 8M in 2030. While most manufacturers are increasing their production share to incorporate more and more EV models, some of major manufacturers plan to go all electric. For instance, Volvo AB plans to have an electric motor in each of their cars by 2019! The company has joined Tesla Inc. and Geely Automobile Holdings Inc. as major EV manufacturers.

The interesting reason behind the rise

Electric vehicles need to compete on two fronts: price and performance. Batteries constitute half of the overall costs of EVs. However, battery-free models are on their way. Recent research indicates that graphene based supercapacitors may put battery-free models on the road within 5 years. This will significantly affect the boom in EV sales, perhaps outperforming recent forecasts much sooner. These are environmentally friendly and will cost less due to absence of high-cost Lithium. More and more research is being conducted in the field to find electrolytes that will allow supercapacitors to achieve better capacitance than Li batteries. We currently provide a list of electrolytes that you can order, including: